The Lamacchia Monthly Housing Report highlights home sale statistics, average sales prices, the number of homes listed and pending as well as price changes for single-families, condos, and multi-family homes in Massachusetts. For New Hampshire, it presents home sale statistics and average sales prices. These factors, when compared year over year, are all indicators for predicting future trends in the market. 2019 will be examined in some areas to highlight the lingering impact of COVID in real estate.
Highlights:
- Buyers have been enjoying a slight reprieve with the diminished competition and still low, but rising, mortgage rates in what has proven to be the best Fall to buy in two years.
- Prices have continued their expected rise and show no indication of decreasing anytime soon.
- As we head further into the Fall season, the number of pending sales has decreased which means that inventory is lingering longer giving buyers a little more time to find the home they want.
- Sellers, as we head into the holiday season, even though the market may appear to be slowing, there are still serious buyers looking for homes, so you shouldn’t be taking your home off the market at the risk of missing out on those opportunities to sell before the end of the year.
- Mortgage rates are still relatively low, however, they continue their subtle uptick. Buyers need to remain motivated in their home search – increased mortgage rates affect the affordability of potential homes. This, coupled with increasing prices, means time is of the essence.
Massachusetts Home Sales Down 17.2%
Sales are down 17.2 percent year over year with October 2021 at 8,235 over 9,940 last October. Single family sales have dropped year over year as well as condo sales, but only slightly. Multi-family sales continue to rise, especially as lingering COVID-19 legislation ends and landlords now have less risk of non-payment by tenants.
- Single families: 6,655 (2020) | 5,285 (2021)
- Condominiums: 2,477 (2020) | 2,089 (2021)
- Multi-families: 808 (2020) | 861 (2021)
As we progress further into this Fall market, inventory levels have started to trend downward, and we may start to see them leveling out to inventory at the end of 2020 or plateauing through the end of 2021. Therefore, buyers need to stay motivated in these next few weeks to capitalize on the lingering higher inventory while the iron is hot as it is the best time to buy in two years. Even if inventory decreases, buyers still should not pause their home search as we head into the holiday season.
Average prices have continued their rise with another year over year increase of 10.6%, now at $578,246. Prices increased in every category.
- Single families: $578,451 (2020) | $639,453 (2021)
- Condominiums: $437,132 (2020) | $438,632 (2021)
- Multi-families: $534,510 (2020) | $657,618 (2021)
2020 was an outlier market due to the pandemic. October 2021 compared to October 2019 saw an increase in sales by 1.7% and an increase in prices by 26.2%.
Homes Listed For Sale:
There were 20.2% fewer listings this year compared to last October 2020 but only 12.4% fewer listings over this time in 2019. Heading towards the Winter, we may see the number of homes listed for sale come closer to 2020 data, but for October, the effects of the delayed COVID market on year over year data remain.
- 2021 – 8,178
- 2020 – 10,249
- 2019 – 9,331
Homes Placed Under Agreement (Pending Home Sales):
The number of homes placed under contract is down by 9.2% when compared to October 2020 but up by 0.6% over the October 2019. Last October was what we referred to as a frenzied market, but the drop in pending home sales indicates that the competition is much less intense this year giving buyers the opportunity to take some slight control back from sellers to use to their advantage this Fall.
- 2021 – 8,928
- 2020 – 9,832
- 2019 – 8,873
Price Changes:
Price changes decreased by 39.3% year over year. Sellers have had to price based on the current Fall market not based on the frenzied market we were in months ago. With inventory reaching its peak at month’s end, rising prices, and a dwindling number of buyers, sellers were forced to take a less aggressive approach to pricing to adjust to the reduction in competition.
- 2021 – 585
- 2020 – 963
- 2019 – 1,199
New Hampshire Home Sales Down 16.7%
Highlights:
- Sales have continued to decrease as we head further into this Fall market, confirming our expectation that this Fall would prove to be advantageous to buyers due to lingering inventory.
- Buyers have been enjoying a much needed break from the aggressive competition that has been present in the market over the past few months, evidenced by slowing demand and a decrease in sales when compared to October 2020.
- Prices continue to rise along with mortgage rates, and both show no signs of making a downward descent. Buyers will need to act quickly to take advantage of the market while it is still swinging in their favor.
- Sellers take note that this decrease in sales should affect how you price your home to attract the most buyers possible. Don’t get discouraged as we head towards the end of the year. Homes do, in fact, sell during the holidays.
Sales decreased by 15.7%, 20.4%, and 16.3% for single-families, condos, and multi-families in NH, respectively, when compared to October 2020.
- Single families: 2,504 (2020) | 1,732 (2021)
- Condominiums: 578 (2020) | 460 (2021)
- Multi-families: 147 (2020) | 123 (2021)
Prices are still on the rise, now up by 11% over 2020. We have seen diminished competition in the market which has inherently lessened the number of bidding wars as buyers exercise a bit more control over sellers in the market. As the year continues, supply will remain tight and, as a result, prices will continue to rise as they have been. Even though prices may increase, it should be less severe than what we saw in the spring which is a good sign for buyers and should be seen as an opportunity to take sooner rather than later.
- Single families: $419,215 (2020) | $454,655 (2021)
- Condominiums: $297,481 (2020) | $352,906 (2021)
- Multi-families: $382,172 (2020) | $467,703 (2021)
The market is trying to catch up to where it would have been had COVID not put a massive wrench in the works, but it’s not quite there yet.
Data provided by Warren Group & MLS PIN for MA, and by NEREN for NH then compared to the prior year.